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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Akhmat host Baltika at Akhmat-Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Akhmat at Akhmat-Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Baltika — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Baltika away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 1.50 PPG, Baltika 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Baltika, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Akhmat.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Baltika winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baltika have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Akhmat in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Baltika in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 56% versus Baltika 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 48% | Baltika 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.25 xG and Baltika 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.889 / defence 0.855 | Baltika attack 1.048 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.077. Data: 55 Akhmat games / 25 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 29% | Baltika 29%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Baltika 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 50% | Baltika 30% BTTS from recent games.

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