Vizela 1-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Do Vizela this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Vizela against 0.80 for Portimonense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 56% versus Portimonense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 48% | Portimonense 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.86 xG and Portimonense 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.770 / defence 1.211 | Portimonense attack 0.807 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.351. Vizela's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Vizela games / 23 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 23% | Draw 31% | Portimonense 46%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Portimonense 2.17. Portimonense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 40% | Portimonense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 23% | Draw 31% | Portimonense 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Vizela 0.86 / Portimonense 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.770 / def 1.211 | Portimonense attack 0.807 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Portimonense xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Portimonense kick off?
Vizela vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Vizela 1 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Vizela vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Portimonense part of?
Vizela vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 23% chance of winning, Portimonense a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vizela and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in?
Vizela (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Portimonense (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.77) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.81x) against Vizela's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
23%
4.32
31%
3.27
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.18
1.32
Portimonense xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Vizela and 1.32 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 5W 8D 10L from 23 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 9L across 23 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Vizela against 1.22 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.22 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 0.91 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Vizela or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Portimonense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Portimonense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Portimonense 0-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Portimonense?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 46%, Portimonense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Vizela and 36% for Portimonense.
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 46%; Vizela have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vizela's recent matches and 36% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Vizela's recent games and 36% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Portimonense tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Portimonense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela and Portimonense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.86 xG and Portimonense 1.32 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.77 / defence 1.21 against Portimonense attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 23% | Draw 31% | Portimonense 46%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 48%, Portimonense 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Portimonense's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.00 PPG, Portimonense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.