Pacos Ferreira 2-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira and Vizela meet at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's home record at Estádio da Capital do Móvel: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vizela have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pacos Ferreira have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vizela in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pacos Ferreira, 0 for Vizela and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus Vizela 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 32% | Vizela 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.30 xG and Vizela 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.781 / defence 1.092 | Vizela attack 0.963 / defence 1.515. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.371. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.515 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Pacos Ferreira games / 22 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 33% | Draw 28% | Vizela 39%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Vizela 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 60% | Vizela 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 33% | Draw 28% | Vizela 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.30 / Vizela 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.781 / def 1.092 | Vizela attack 0.963 / def 1.515 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Vizela (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Vizela xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela?
Pacos Ferreira 2 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 33% chance of winning, Vizela a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Vizela?
Record (1 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 1 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Vizela in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Vizela (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.78) and Vizela's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.96x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.59
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.74
1.44
Vizela xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.44 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacos Ferreira's recent record stands at 4W 9D 9L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 9L across 22 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.05 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pacos Ferreira have managed 1W 5D 4L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.09 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Vizela in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Vizela have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Vizela away?
Vizela's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.80 PPG; Vizela away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vizela in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Vizela 1-2 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Vizela?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 60%, Vizela 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pacos Ferreira) and 70% (Vizela). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 40% of games; Vizela in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 60% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Pacos Ferreira's matches and 70% of Vizela's.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Vizela tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vizela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacos Ferreira defy the odds to beat Vizela 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Vizela 2-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.30 xG and Vizela 1.44 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Vizela attack 0.96 / defence 1.51, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 33% | Draw 28% | Vizela 39%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pacos Ferreira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 32%, Vizela 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 0.95 PPG, Vizela 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.