Maritimo 1-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sporting CP make the trip to Estádio dos Barreiros to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Estádio dos Barreiros this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sporting CP have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Maritimo, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Sporting CP winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 56% versus Sporting CP 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 48% | Sporting CP 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.94 xG and Sporting CP 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.828 / defence 0.923 | Sporting CP attack 1.259 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.358. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Maritimo games / 23 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 22% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 52%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Sporting CP 1.92. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 50% | Sporting CP 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 22% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Maritimo 0.94 / Sporting CP 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.828 / def 0.923 | Sporting CP attack 1.259 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Sporting CP xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Sporting CP kick off?
Maritimo vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Maritimo 1 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Maritimo vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Sporting CP part of?
Maritimo vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 22% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Maritimo and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Sporting CP?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Sporting CP in?
Maritimo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.83) and Sporting CP's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.26x) against Maritimo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
22%
4.58
26%
3.80
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.52
1.58
Sporting CP xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
22.22
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.58 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Maritimo have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 7D 9L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP's form line: 18W 3D 2L from 23 games, 2.48 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 8W 2D 1L from 11 away games — 2.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.00 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 18W 3D 2L in their last 23 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.27 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
1
Draws
2
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Sporting CP?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Sporting CP have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 46%, Sporting CP 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Maritimo) and 64% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sporting CP in 36%; Maritimo have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Maritimo's recent matches and 64% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Maritimo's recent games and 64% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Maritimo and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo and Sporting CP finished level at 1-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 0.94 xG and Sporting CP 1.58 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Sporting CP attack 1.26 / defence 1.06, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 22% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 52%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 48%, Sporting CP 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.