Benfica 3-0 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Vitória SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Vitória SC travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitória SC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitória SC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benfica, 0 for Vitória SC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Vitória SC trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 65% and Vitória SC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 65% | Vitória SC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.09 xG and Vitória SC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.428 / defence 1.105 | Vitória SC attack 0.727 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.348. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vitória SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Benfica games / 23 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 59% | Draw 23% | Vitória SC 18%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Vitória SC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 80% | Vitória SC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 59% | Draw 23% | Vitória SC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Benfica 2.09 / Vitória SC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.428 / def 1.105 | Vitória SC attack 0.727 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Benfica (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Vitória SC xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Vitória SC kick off?
Benfica vs Vitória SC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Benfica 3 - 0 Vitória SC.
Where is Benfica vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Vitória SC part of?
Benfica vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 59% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Benfica and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vitória SC?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Vitória SC 0W.
What form are Benfica and Vitória SC in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Vitória SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.43) and Vitória SC's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitória SC's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.40
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.18
1.08
Vitória SC xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
45.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Benfica and 1.08 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 23 games, going 16W 3D 4L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitória SC sit at 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 7W 1D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitória SC have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vitória SC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.43 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Vitória SC in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 16W 3D 4L in their last 23 games (2.22 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Vitória SC away?
Benfica's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.00 PPG; Vitória SC away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Benfica or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Vitória SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Vitória SC specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Benfica
2
Draws
0
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vitória SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 8, Vitória SC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Benfica 3-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Vitória SC?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 73%, Vitória SC at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Benfica) and 54% (Vitória SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Vitória SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Benfica's games and 64% of Vitória SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Benfica's matches and 54% of Vitória SC's.
Do Benfica and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vitória SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vitória SC 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.09 xG and Vitória SC 1.08 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitória SC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.43 / defence 1.10 against Vitória SC attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 59% | Draw 23% | Vitória SC 18%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 65%, Vitória SC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vitória SC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.