Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira and Boavista meet at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacos Ferreira have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season.
Boavista (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Pacos Ferreira, 0.90 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pacos Ferreira, 2 for Boavista and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Boavista winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 44% versus Boavista 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 38% | Boavista 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.31 xG and Boavista 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.772 / defence 1.253 | Boavista attack 0.968 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 0.992. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Pacos Ferreira games / 55 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 39% | Draw 27% | Boavista 34%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Boavista 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacos Ferreira at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 50% | Boavista 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 39% | Draw 27% | Boavista 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.31 / Boavista 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.772 / def 1.253 | Boavista attack 0.968 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.369 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Boavista xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 3 Boavista.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 39% chance of winning, Boavista a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Boavista?
Record (3 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 2W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Boavista in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.77) and Boavista's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.97x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.73
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
Boavista xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.20 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacos Ferreira's recent record stands at 12W 14D 29L from 55 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 19L across 55 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.16 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pacos Ferreira have managed 5W 8D 14L from 27 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boavista's away record stands at 5W 8D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.15 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Boavista in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 12W 14D 29L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Boavista have gone 14W 22D 19L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Boavista away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.85 PPG; Boavista away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Boavista have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
3
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Boavista?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, Boavista have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 56%, Boavista 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pacos Ferreira) and 63% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 41% of games; Boavista in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 67% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 63% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Boavista tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Boavista in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Pacos Ferreira 1-3 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.31 xG and Boavista 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Boavista attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 39% | Draw 27% | Boavista 34%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 38%, Boavista 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 0.91 PPG, Boavista 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.