Sporting CP 1-0 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Sporting CP take on Guimaraes.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Alvalade plays host to Sporting CP versus Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Current Form
Sporting CP's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 7W 2D 0L from 9 games (2.56 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 0.44 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.44 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sporting CP have posted 4W 1D 0L at Estádio José Alvalade — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guimaraes have collected 1.44 PPG across 9 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guimaraes's away record: 1W 3D 0L from 4 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 1.12 in Sporting CP's favour (2.56 vs 1.44) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 44% versus Guimaraes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 33% | Guimaraes 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.07 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.052 / defence 0.817 | Guimaraes attack 0.857 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 0.941 / away 1.166. Data: 9 Sporting CP games / 9 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 37% | Draw 40% | Guimaraes 24%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.70 | Draw 2.50 | Guimaraes 4.17. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 20% | Guimaraes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 37% | Draw 40% | Guimaraes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Sporting CP 1.07 / Guimaraes 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.052 / def 0.817 | Guimaraes attack 0.857 / def 1.078 | league avg home 0.941 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Guimaraes xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Guimaraes kick off?
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes kicked off at 21:15 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Guimaraes.
Where is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes part of?
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 37% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 24% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sporting CP and Guimaraes will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Guimaraes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Guimaraes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sporting CP and Guimaraes in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-2D-0L in 9 | 2.56 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 0.44 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Guimaraes (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.05x the league average against Guimaraes's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guimaraes's attack (0.86x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.71
40%
2.53
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
1.88
0.82
Guimaraes xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.82 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sporting CP come into this having played 9 games, going 7W 2D 0L for 2.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guimaraes sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sporting CP's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Guimaraes have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sporting CP are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game recently; Guimaraes are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Guimaraes in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Guimaraes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Guimaraes in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 7W 2D 0L in their last 9 games (2.56 PPG), while Guimaraes have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Guimaraes away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.50 PPG; Guimaraes away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Guimaraes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Guimaraes in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sporting CP
1
Draws
1
Guimaraes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Guimaraes?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 8, Guimaraes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Guimaraes last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Sporting CP 5-1 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Guimaraes?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guimaraes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 25%, Guimaraes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sporting CP and 50% for Guimaraes.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Guimaraes in 50%; Guimaraes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Guimaraes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Guimaraes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 50% of Guimaraes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sporting CP's recent games and 50% of Guimaraes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Guimaraes tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guimaraes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Guimaraes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.07 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guimaraes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.05 / defence 0.82 against Guimaraes attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 37% | Draw 40% | Guimaraes 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sporting CP win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 33%, Guimaraes 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guimaraes's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.