Moreirense 1-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Moreirense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host Pacos Ferreira at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — a 0.78 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreirense have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pacos Ferreira — All Games: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 0.78 PPG versus Pacos Ferreira's 1.11. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Moreirense in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pacos Ferreira in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 67% versus Pacos Ferreira 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 67% | Pacos Ferreira 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.40 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.165 / defence 1.375 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.796 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.144. Pacos Ferreira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Moreirense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Moreirense games / 9 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 37% | Draw 33% | Pacos Ferreira 30%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Pacos Ferreira 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 100% | Pacos Ferreira 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 37% | Draw 33% | Pacos Ferreira 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Moreirense 1.40 / Pacos Ferreira 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.165 / def 1.375 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.796 / def 1.237 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pacos Ferreira xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Moreirense 1 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 37% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira in?
Moreirense (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 1.17x the league average against Pacos Ferreira's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacos Ferreira's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
37%
2.73
33%
2.99
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.25 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 3L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Moreirense on 0.78 PPG, Pacos Ferreira on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacos Ferreira's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Moreirense's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.00 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Moreirense
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira?
From 2 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Pacos Ferreira 2-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Moreirense at 100%, Pacos Ferreira at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Moreirense and 50% for Pacos Ferreira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Pacos Ferreira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Moreirense's games and 50% of Pacos Ferreira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Moreirense's matches and 50% of Pacos Ferreira's.
Do Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense and Pacos Ferreira finished level at 1-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.40 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.17 / defence 1.38 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 37% | Draw 33% | Pacos Ferreira 30%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 67%, Pacos Ferreira 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 0.78 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.