Maritimo 1-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Maritimo take on GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio da Madeira plays host to Maritimo versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 0.78 PPG across 9 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 0W 3D 1L at Estádio da Madeira — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente (all games): 2W 3D 4L across 9 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.78 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 56% versus GIL Vicente 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 44% | GIL Vicente 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.96 xG and GIL Vicente 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.831 / defence 1.180 | GIL Vicente attack 0.814 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.152. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Maritimo games / 9 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 27% | Draw 38% | GIL Vicente 35%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | GIL Vicente 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 50% | GIL Vicente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 27% | Draw 38% | GIL Vicente 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Maritimo 0.96 / GIL Vicente 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.831 / def 1.180 | GIL Vicente attack 0.814 / def 1.233 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
GIL Vicente xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Maritimo vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Maritimo 1 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Maritimo vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Maritimo vs GIL Vicente part of?
Maritimo vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 27% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Maritimo and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and GIL Vicente in?
Maritimo (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.83x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.81x) against Maritimo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.68
38%
2.62
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.07
1.11
GIL Vicente xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.0 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Maritimo and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.11 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Maritimo against 1.00 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.75 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
GIL Vicente go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
1
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 50%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Maritimo and 25% for GIL Vicente.
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Maritimo's recent matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Maritimo's recent games and 25% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Maritimo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Maritimo 1-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 0.96 xG and GIL Vicente 1.11 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against GIL Vicente attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 27% | Draw 38% | GIL Vicente 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 44%, GIL Vicente 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 0.78 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.