Estoril 1-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 5W 3D 1L from 9 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 0.78 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 1W 2D 1L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.25 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season.
Benfica — All Games: 8W 0D 1L from 9 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.67 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.22 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.56 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 0L across 5 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 0.67 PPG ahead (2.67 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Benfica trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 56% versus Benfica 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Benfica 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.79 xG and Benfica 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.952 / defence 1.149 | Benfica attack 1.282 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.177. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Estoril games / 9 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 13% | Draw 30% | Benfica 57%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 7.69 | Draw 3.33 | Benfica 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 50% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 13% | Draw 30% | Benfica 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Estoril 0.79 / Benfica 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.952 / def 1.149 | Benfica attack 1.282 / def 0.879 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Benfica (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Benfica xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 1 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 13% chance of winning, Benfica a 57% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Benfica in?
Estoril (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Benfica (all comps): 8W-0D-1L in 9 | 2.67 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 0.56 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.95) and Benfica's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
13%
7.48
30%
3.34
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.52
1.73
Benfica xG
7.48
13%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
2%
42.32
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Estoril and 1.73 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 8W 0D 1L across 9 games — 2.67 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Benfica's away record stands at 4W 0D 0L across 4 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.22 scored and 0.56 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into Estoril's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Benfica in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 8W 0D 1L in their last 9 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.25 PPG; Benfica away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benfica in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 9 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Estoril 1-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 50%, Benfica 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estoril) and 50% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 75%; Estoril have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Estoril's recent matches and 25% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estoril's recent games and 50% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Estoril and Benfica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and Benfica finished level at 1-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.79 xG and Benfica 1.73 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Benfica attack 1.28 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 13% | Draw 30% | Benfica 57%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Benfica 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.