Moreirense 0-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Moreirense welcome Maritimo to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Moreirense — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense's home record at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Maritimo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Moreirense) versus 1.50 (Maritimo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Moreirense register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Moreirense, 0 for Maritimo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Maritimo in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 54% versus Maritimo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 46% | Maritimo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.40 xG and Maritimo 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.987 / defence 1.143 | Maritimo attack 0.909 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.320. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Moreirense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Moreirense games / 24 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 35% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 34%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Maritimo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 60% | Maritimo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 35% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Moreirense 1.40 / Maritimo 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.987 / def 1.143 | Maritimo attack 0.909 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Maritimo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Maritimo kick off?
Moreirense vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Moreirense 0 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Moreirense vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Maritimo part of?
Moreirense vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 35% chance of winning, Maritimo a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Moreirense and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Moreirense and Maritimo in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Maritimo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.99x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.28
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.77
1.37
Maritimo xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.37 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 4W 8D 12L from 24 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 9L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Moreirense on 0.83 PPG, Maritimo on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 3W 2D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.21 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 4W 8D 12L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Maritimo away?
Moreirense's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.09 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Moreirense
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Maritimo?
From 2 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Moreirense 0-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 64%, Maritimo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Moreirense) and 64% (Maritimo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Moreirense have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Moreirense's games and 64% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Moreirense's matches and 64% of Maritimo's.
Do Moreirense and Maritimo tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat Moreirense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Moreirense 0-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.40 xG and Maritimo 1.37 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Maritimo attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 35% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 34%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 46%, Maritimo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Maritimo's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 0.83 PPG, Maritimo 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.