Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Vitória SC at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Casa Pia encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Vitória SC versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 33). Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 21:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Vitória SC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Vitória SC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vitória SC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Casa Pia (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Casa Pia have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Vitória SC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Casa Pia (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Vitória SC, 2 for Casa Pia and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.9 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Vitória SC 0–0 Casa Pia — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.9 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Vitória SC — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 42% versus Casa Pia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 47% | Casa Pia 46%). Note also that Casa Pia surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Vitória SC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 2.10 xG and Casa Pia 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.144 / defence 0.896 | Casa Pia attack 0.720 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.137. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitória SC's projected output up. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Vitória SC's last 66 games and Casa Pia's last 66.

Result probabilities: Vitória SC 69% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 12%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 1.45 | Draw 5.25 | Casa Pia 8.46. The model has a clear lean to Vitória SC (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Vitória SC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 0.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitória SC 50% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games).

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