GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Arouca have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Arouca hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Arouca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 48% versus Arouca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 47% | Arouca 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.76 xG and Arouca 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.083 / defence 0.948 | Arouca attack 0.914 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.137. Data: 66 GIL Vicente games / 66 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 23% | Arouca 21%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Arouca 4.76. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 70% | Arouca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 23% | Arouca 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG GIL Vicente 1.76 / Arouca 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.083 / def 0.948 | Arouca attack 0.914 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Arouca xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Arouca kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente 1 - 3 Arouca.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Arouca part of?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 56% chance of winning, Arouca a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both GIL Vicente and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Record (9 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 6 | Arouca 3W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Arouca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.08) and Arouca's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.91x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.26
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.74
0.99
Arouca xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
27.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.99 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 21W 21D 24L from 66 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 30L across 66 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.12 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 14W 8D 11L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 8W 7D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 21W 21D 24L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Arouca have gone 19W 17D 30L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Arouca away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.52 PPG; Arouca away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
6
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 46%, Arouca 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GIL Vicente) and 64% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 30% of games; Arouca in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 58% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 64% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Arouca tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Arouca in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat GIL Vicente 1-3 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.76 xG and Arouca 0.99 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Arouca attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 23% | Arouca 21%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Arouca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 47%, Arouca 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.27 PPG, Arouca 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.