Casa Pia 0-1 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Tondela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tondela make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Casa Pia are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior than their overall form suggests.
Tondela have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Tondela away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Casa Pia, 0 for Tondela and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Casa Pia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Tondela half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 48% versus Tondela 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 48% | Tondela 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Tondela 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.824 / defence 0.997 | Tondela attack 0.833 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.161. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Casa Pia games / 31 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Tondela 4.35. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 60% | Tondela 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Casa Pia 1.57 / Tondela 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.824 / def 0.997 | Tondela attack 0.833 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Tondela xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Tondela kick off?
Casa Pia vs Tondela kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Tondela.
Where is Casa Pia vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Tondela part of?
Casa Pia vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 51% chance of winning, Tondela a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Casa Pia and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Tondela?
Record (1 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Tondela 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Tondela in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Tondela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Tondela's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.83x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
51%
1.94
25%
3.95
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.53
0.96
Tondela xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
20.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.96 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia come into this having played 31 games, going 5W 11D 15L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 0.71 PPG from 31 outings (4W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.71 for Tondela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Casa Pia's home form reads 2W 8D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Tondela have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 0.74 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
Tondela
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Tondela in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 5W 11D 15L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Tondela have gone 4W 10D 17L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Tondela away?
Casa Pia's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.93 PPG; Tondela away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
0
Draws
1
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Tondela?
From 2 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Tondela have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Casa Pia 0-1 Tondela.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 60%, Tondela 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Casa Pia) and 67% (Tondela).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 40% of games; Tondela in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 33% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Casa Pia's recent games and 67% of Tondela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Tondela tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tondela in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tondela defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Tondela 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Tondela attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 48%, Tondela 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tondela's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 0.84 PPG, Tondela 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.