Estrela 0-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estrela vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Gomes plays host to Estrela versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Estrela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio José Gomes, Estrela have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Estrela are significantly better at Estádio José Gomes than their overall form suggests.
Famalicao have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Famalicao have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Famalicao arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Estrela, 1 for Famalicao and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Estrela winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Estrela — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 39% versus Famalicao 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 42% | Famalicao 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.18 xG and Famalicao 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.934 / defence 1.148 | Famalicao attack 0.973 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.137. Data: 66 Estrela games / 66 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 40% | Famalicao 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Estrela 1.18 / Famalicao 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.934 / def 1.148 | Famalicao attack 0.973 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Famalicao xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Famalicao kick off?
Estrela vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Famalicao?
Estrela 0 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Estrela vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Famalicao part of?
Estrela vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 34% chance of winning, Famalicao a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estrela and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Famalicao?
Record (5 meetings): Estrela 2W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Estrela and Famalicao in?
Estrela (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Famalicao (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estrela's attack at 0.93x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.97x) against Estrela's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.66
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.45
1.27
Famalicao xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Estrela and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Estrela and 1.27 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estrela come into this having played 66 games, going 13W 18D 35L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (26W 21D 19L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Famalicao carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Estrela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Estrela's home form reads 9W 9D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.30 points per game from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.29 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Current Season
Famalicao
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 13W 18D 35L in their last 66 games (0.86 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 26W 21D 19L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Famalicao away?
Famalicao's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.09 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Estrela or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Famalicao in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 0-3 on 19 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estrela
3
Draws
1
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Famalicao?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 2, Famalicao have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Estrela 0-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Famalicao?
Estrela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 42%, Famalicao 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estrela) and 52% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Famalicao in 30%; Estrela have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Estrela's recent matches and 54% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Estrela's recent games and 52% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Famalicao tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estrela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 33, as Estrela and Famalicao drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.18 xG and Famalicao 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Famalicao landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Famalicao attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 42%, Famalicao 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.