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Shock result as Guimaraes defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 2.25 xG and Guimaraes 0.90 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Guimaraes attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 19% | Guimaraes 14%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Guimaraes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Guimaraes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.27 PPG, Guimaraes 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights