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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Guimaraes make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Form

GIL Vicente (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guimaraes have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Guimaraes's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.10 for Guimaraes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 3W to 5W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 49% versus Guimaraes 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Guimaraes 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 2.25 xG and Guimaraes 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.225 / defence 0.921 | Guimaraes attack 0.855 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.148. Guimaraes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 GIL Vicente games / 63 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 19% | Guimaraes 14%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Guimaraes 7.14. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 60% | Guimaraes 40%.

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