GIL Vicente 0-1 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 68%, yet the head-to-head data favours Vitória SC — this GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitória SC make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, GIL Vicente have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitória SC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitória SC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.10 for Vitória SC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Vitória SC have the stronger record — 5 wins to GIL Vicente's 2, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2025, ended GIL Vicente 0–0 Vitória SC — a draw.
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Vitória SC — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 49% versus Vitória SC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Vitória SC 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIL Vicente surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Vitória SC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 2.25 xG and Vitória SC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.225 / defence 0.921 | Vitória SC attack 0.855 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.148. Vitória SC's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIL Vicente's projected output up. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 63 games and Vitória SC's last 63.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 19% | Vitória SC 14%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.48 | Draw 5.37 | Vitória SC 7.30. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and Vitória SC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 60% (last 10 home games) | Vitória SC 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 19% | Vitória SC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG GIL Vicente 2.25 / Vitória SC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.225 / def 0.921 | Vitória SC attack 0.855 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Vitória SC xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC?
GIL Vicente 0 - 1 Vitória SC.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC part of?
GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 68% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both GIL Vicente and Vitória SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.23x the league average against Vitória SC's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.85x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 63 games and Vitória SC's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.37
14%
7.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
3.15
0.90
Vitória SC xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
7.30
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
11%
9.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
1%
68.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.90 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 20D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Vitória SC sit at 1.43 PPG from 63 outings (24W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.43 for Vitória SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GIL Vicente's home form reads 13W 8D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitória SC have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Vitória SC
Current Season
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Vitória SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Vitória SC
Current Season
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 20W 20D 23L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 24W 18D 21L in their last 63 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Vitória SC away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.52 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.06 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitória SC won Vitória SC 5-0 GIL Vicente on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
6
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Vitória SC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 2, Vitória SC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Vitória SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: GIL Vicente 0-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 45%, Vitória SC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (GIL Vicente) and 36% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 29% of games; Vitória SC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Vitória SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 39% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Vitória SC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 36% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Vitória SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 64% of Vitória SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitória SC defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 2.25 xG and Vitória SC 0.90 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Vitória SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 19% | Vitória SC 14%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Vitória SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Vitória SC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitória SC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.27 PPG, Vitória SC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitória SC win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitória SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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