Famalicao 0-0 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Maritimo at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 0.40 PPG across 5 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 3L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Maritimo are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Famalicao register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Maritimo in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Famalicao 80% and Maritimo 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 60% | Maritimo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.16 xG and Maritimo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.930 / defence 1.212 | Maritimo attack 0.935 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.145. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Famalicao games / 5 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 29% | Draw 35% | Maritimo 36%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Maritimo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 80% | Maritimo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 29% | Draw 35% | Maritimo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Famalicao 1.16 / Maritimo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.930 / def 1.212 | Maritimo attack 0.935 / def 1.262 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Maritimo xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Maritimo kick off?
Famalicao vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Famalicao 0 - 0 Maritimo.
Where is Famalicao vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Maritimo part of?
Famalicao vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 29% chance of winning, Maritimo a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Famalicao and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Maritimo in?
Famalicao (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.93) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.94x) against Famalicao's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
29%
3.41
35%
2.86
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.46
1.30
Maritimo xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.49
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.30 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Maritimo by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Maritimo in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Maritimo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Maritimo?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Famalicao, 80% for Maritimo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Famalicao and 60% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Famalicao's games and 80% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Famalicao's matches and 60% of Maritimo's.
Do Famalicao and Maritimo tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 6, as Famalicao and Maritimo drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.16 xG and Maritimo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Maritimo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Maritimo attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 29% | Draw 35% | Maritimo 36%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 60%, Maritimo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Maritimo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Maritimo arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Maritimo managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.