Sporting CP 1-0 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sporting CP at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sporting CP vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sporting CP and Maritimo meet at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sporting CP have collected 2.33 PPG across 6 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sporting CP have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sporting CP's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Estádio José Alvalade this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade.
Maritimo's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.33 in Sporting CP's favour (2.33 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 50% versus Maritimo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 33% | Maritimo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.35 xG and Maritimo 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.124 / defence 0.957 | Maritimo attack 0.799 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.123. Data: 6 Sporting CP games / 6 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 44% | Draw 36% | Maritimo 20%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | Maritimo 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sporting CP at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sporting CP 33% | Maritimo 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 44% | Draw 36% | Maritimo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Sporting CP 1.35 / Maritimo 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.124 / def 0.957 | Maritimo attack 0.799 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Maritimo xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Maritimo kick off?
Sporting CP vs Maritimo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Maritimo.
Where is Sporting CP vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Maritimo part of?
Sporting CP vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 44% chance of winning, Maritimo a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sporting CP and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sporting CP and Maritimo in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.12x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.80x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
44%
2.25
36%
2.81
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.21
0.86
Maritimo xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.86 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sporting CP come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 2D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sporting CP, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sporting CP's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Maritimo have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sporting CP are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 67%.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 games (2.33 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Maritimo away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.33 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Maritimo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sporting CP
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Maritimo?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 33%, Maritimo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sporting CP) and 67% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Maritimo in 33%; Maritimo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 67% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sporting CP's recent games and 67% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Maritimo tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Maritimo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Maritimo 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.35 xG and Maritimo 0.86 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Maritimo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Maritimo attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 44% | Draw 36% | Maritimo 20%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 33%, Maritimo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Maritimo's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.