Benfica 3-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Benfica welcome Boavista to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boavista — All Games: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Boavista in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 40% versus Boavista 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Boavista 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.46 xG and Boavista 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.093 / defence 1.031 | Boavista attack 0.728 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.120. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Benfica games / 5 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 48% | Draw 34% | Boavista 18%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Boavista 5.56. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | Boavista 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 48% | Draw 34% | Boavista 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Benfica 1.46 / Boavista 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.093 / def 1.031 | Boavista attack 0.728 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Benfica (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Boavista xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Boavista kick off?
Benfica vs Boavista kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 September 2021 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Boavista?
Benfica 3 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Benfica vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Boavista part of?
Benfica vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 48% chance of winning, Boavista a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Benfica and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Boavista?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Boavista in?
Benfica (all comps): 5W-0D-0L in 5 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Boavista (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benfica's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
48%
2.09
34%
2.93
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.30
0.84
Boavista xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
23.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Benfica and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Benfica and 0.84 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 5 games, going 5W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Boavista — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Boavista's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Boavista in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Boavista
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Boavista in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 games (3.00 PPG), while Boavista have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Benfica or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Boavista in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Benfica won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Benfica
1
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Boavista have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Benfica 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Boavista?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 40%, Boavista 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Benfica) and 40% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Boavista in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Benfica's recent matches and 40% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Benfica's recent games and 40% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Boavista tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Boavista in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Boavista 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.46 xG and Boavista 0.84 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Boavista attack 0.73 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 48% | Draw 34% | Boavista 18%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Boavista 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Boavista shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.