Maritimo 2-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio da Madeira to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 3L. Last five: L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Maritimo against 0.75 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 75% versus Arouca 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 50% | Arouca 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.15 xG and Arouca 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.837 / defence 1.211 | Arouca attack 0.629 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.102. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Maritimo games / 4 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 39% | Draw 38% | Arouca 23%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Arouca 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 75% | Arouca 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 39% | Draw 38% | Arouca 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Maritimo 1.15 / Arouca 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.837 / def 1.211 | Arouca attack 0.629 / def 1.430 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Arouca xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Arouca kick off?
Maritimo vs Arouca kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Arouca?
Maritimo 2 - 2 Arouca.
Where is Maritimo vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Maritimo vs Arouca part of?
Maritimo vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 39% chance of winning, Arouca a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Maritimo and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in?
Maritimo (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L. Arouca (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.84x the league average against Arouca's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.63x) against Maritimo's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
39%
2.56
38%
2.61
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Maritimo xG
Total xG
1.99
0.84
Arouca xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.84 for Arouca, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 3L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Maritimo against 0.75 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Arouca in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Arouca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Arouca have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
2
Draws
1
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Arouca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Arouca 1-0 Maritimo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 75%, Arouca 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Maritimo) and 50% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Arouca in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Maritimo's recent matches and 25% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Maritimo's recent games and 50% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Arouca tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arouca in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Maritimo and Arouca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 5, as Maritimo and Arouca drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.15 xG and Arouca 0.84 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Maritimo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arouca outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Arouca attack 0.63 / defence 1.43, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 39% | Draw 38% | Arouca 23%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 50%, Arouca 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.00 PPG, Arouca 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Maritimo scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.