Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Famalicao face Casa Pia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:15 UK time.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Famalicao's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Casa Pia have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Casa Pia have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Famalicao, 1.30 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Famalicao edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Famalicao 1–1 Casa Pia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 46% versus Casa Pia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 48% | Casa Pia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.137 / defence 0.866 | Casa Pia attack 0.793 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.217. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Famalicao's last 56 games and Casa Pia's last 56.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.61 | Draw 4.57 | Casa Pia 6.20. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Famalicao 40% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Famalicao 1.88 / Casa Pia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.137 / def 0.866 | Casa Pia attack 0.793 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Casa Pia xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Famalicao vs Casa Pia FAQs
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Monday 23 February 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Famalicao 2 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 62% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 1.14x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.79x) against Famalicao's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Famalicao's last 56 games and Casa Pia's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.57
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.71
0.83
Casa Pia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
40.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Famalicao vs Casa Pia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.83 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 21W 16D 19L from 56 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 23L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Famalicao against 1.20 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 12W 9D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.14 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
Famalicao (Home) vs Casa Pia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Famalicao
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Famalicao vs Casa Pia Form FAQs
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.61 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 23 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Famalicao vs Casa Pia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2026: Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 39%, Casa Pia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 54% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; Casa Pia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Famalicao vs Casa Pia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Famalicao and Casa Pia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Famalicao's recent matches and 46% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Famalicao and Casa Pia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 54% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Famalicao's recent matches and 64% of Casa Pia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Casa Pia 2-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Casa Pia attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.41 PPG, Casa Pia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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