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Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat FC Porto 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat FC Porto 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.66 xG and FC Porto 2.11 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Porto landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 1.32 against FC Porto attack 1.27 / defence 0.51, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 10% | Draw 19% | FC Porto 71%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Casa Pia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Porto (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights