Famalicao 1-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Famalicao welcome SC Braga to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 January 2024 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Famalicao register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Braga in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Famalicao, 2 for SC Braga and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Famalicao winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 47% versus SC Braga 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | SC Braga 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.45 xG and SC Braga 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | SC Braga attack 1.329 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.286. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Famalicao games / 51 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 49%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | SC Braga 2.04. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 60% | SC Braga 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jan 2024, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Famalicao 1.45 / SC Braga 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | SC Braga attack 1.329 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.97
SC Braga xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs SC Braga kick off?
Famalicao vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:45 on Thursday 18 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Famalicao 1 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Famalicao vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs SC Braga part of?
Famalicao vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 28% chance of winning, SC Braga a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Famalicao and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and SC Braga?
Record (5 meetings): Famalicao 2W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Famalicao and SC Braga in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.86) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
28%
3.52
22%
4.52
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Famalicao xG
Total xG
3.42
1.97
SC Braga xG
3.52
28%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
14%
7.13
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
4%
25.15
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.97 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 12D 21L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga's form line: 35W 6D 10L from 51 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Venue Form
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
On the road, SC Braga have gone 17W 2D 6L from 25 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Famalicao are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.25 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 35W 6D 10L in their last 51 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.60 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Famalicao or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SC Braga in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2022, when SC Braga won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
4
Draws
4
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, SC Braga have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SC Braga 2-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 44%, SC Braga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Famalicao and 72% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Famalicao's recent matches and 60% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Famalicao's matches and 72% of SC Braga's.
Do Famalicao and SC Braga tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.45 xG and SC Braga 1.97 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against SC Braga attack 1.33 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 28% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 49%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, SC Braga 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
SC Braga's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.