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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out Arouca 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Arouca 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.67 xG and Arouca 1.49 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Arouca attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 42% | Draw 24% | Arouca 34%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Arouca 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.16 PPG, Arouca 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights