Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Casa Pia at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 January 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Casa Pia. A 0.80 PPG lead over Famalicao (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Famalicao in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 46% versus Famalicao 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 42% | Famalicao 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.48 xG and Famalicao 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.974 / defence 0.970 | Famalicao attack 1.160 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.170. Data: 50 Casa Pia games / 50 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 41% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 33%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Famalicao 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 60% | Famalicao 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 41% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Casa Pia 1.48 / Famalicao 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.974 / def 0.970 | Famalicao attack 1.160 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Famalicao xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Famalicao kick off?
Casa Pia vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Casa Pia vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Famalicao part of?
Casa Pia vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 41% chance of winning, Famalicao a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Casa Pia and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
Record (4 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are Casa Pia and Famalicao in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Famalicao (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.97x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.16x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.84
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
Famalicao xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.32 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 13D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.22 PPG from 50 outings (14W 19D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.22 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Casa Pia's home form reads 6W 8D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.12 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 14W 19D 17L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Famalicao away?
Famalicao's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.08 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
2
Draws
4
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Famalicao have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 42%, Famalicao 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Casa Pia) and 46% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 46% of games; Famalicao in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 54% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Casa Pia's recent games and 46% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Famalicao tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.48 xG and Famalicao 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Famalicao attack 1.16 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 41% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 33%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 42%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.22 PPG, Famalicao 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.