🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Benfica (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Famalicao.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 January 2025, 20:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.

Famalicao — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Benfica have won 4, Famalicao 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Famalicao winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Benfica trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Famalicao trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 45% versus Famalicao 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 59% | Famalicao 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.30 xG and Famalicao 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.568 / defence 0.751 | Famalicao attack 1.118 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.184. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.568 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Benfica games / 51 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Famalicao 14%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Famalicao 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 40% | Famalicao 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights