Belenenses 0-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estoril at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Belenenses welcome Estoril to Estádio Nacional. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Belenenses have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses's home record at Estádio Nacional: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Primeira Liga appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's away record: 4W 2D 1L from 7 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Estoril's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Belenenses's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Belenenses trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Estoril trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 42% versus Estoril 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Belenenses 33% | Estoril 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 0.87 xG and Estoril 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.725 / defence 1.663 | Estoril attack 0.861 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.331. Belenenses's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Belenenses games / 13 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 13% | Draw 28% | Estoril 59%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 7.69 | Draw 3.57 | Estoril 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 67% | Estoril 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 13% | Draw 28% | Estoril 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Belenenses 0.87 / Estoril 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.725 / def 1.663 | Estoril attack 0.861 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Estoril (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Estoril xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Estoril kick off?
Belenenses vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Estoril?
Belenenses 0 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Belenenses vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Estoril part of?
Belenenses vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 13% chance of winning, Estoril a 59% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Belenenses and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Estoril in?
Belenenses (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Belenenses's attack rating (0.72) and Estoril's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
13%
7.46
28%
3.58
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.77
1.91
Estoril xG
7.46
13%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
2%
50.16
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.91 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Belenenses's recent record stands at 1W 5D 6L from 12 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 2L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Belenenses heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Belenenses have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estoril's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Belenenses are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Estoril in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Estoril have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 0.83 PPG; Estoril away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Belenenses and Estoril runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
1
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Estoril?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Estoril have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Estoril 2-2 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Belenenses at 67%, Estoril at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Belenenses) and 33% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Belenenses have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Belenenses's games and 67% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Belenenses's recent games and 33% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and Estoril tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Estoril in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Belenenses 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Belenenses 0-1 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 0.87 xG and Estoril 1.91 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Belenenses fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Estoril landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.72 / defence 1.66 against Estoril attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 13% | Draw 28% | Estoril 59%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 33%, Estoril 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estoril's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Belenenses (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.