Belenenses 0-7 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Belenenses vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio Nacional to face Belenenses in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Belenenses (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses's home record at Estádio Nacional: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 0L across 6 road games this term (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Belenenses — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Benfica — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 46% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Belenenses 27% | Benfica 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 0.82 xG and Benfica 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.849 / defence 1.241 | Benfica attack 1.148 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.257. Data: 11 Belenenses games / 11 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 14% | Draw 29% | Benfica 57%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 7.14 | Draw 3.45 | Benfica 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Belenenses 80% | Benfica 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 14% | Draw 29% | Benfica 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Belenenses 0.82 / Benfica 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.849 / def 1.241 | Benfica attack 1.148 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Benfica (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Benfica xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Benfica kick off?
Belenenses vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Benfica?
Belenenses 0 - 7 Benfica.
Where is Belenenses vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Benfica part of?
Belenenses vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 14% chance of winning, Benfica a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Belenenses and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Benfica in?
Belenenses (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Belenenses's attack rating (0.85) and Benfica's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.15x) against Belenenses's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
14%
7.40
29%
3.42
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.61
1.79
Benfica xG
7.40
14%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
44.35
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.79 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Belenenses have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 1W 5D 5L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 9W 1D 1L from 11 games, 2.55 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Belenenses.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Belenenses have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Belenenses are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.45 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Benfica in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Benfica have gone 9W 1D 1L in their last 11 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 1.00 PPG; Benfica away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Belenenses or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Belenenses have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Benfica in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
0
Draws
2
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Benfica?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Benfica have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Benfica 3-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Belenenses 80%, Benfica 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Belenenses) and 40% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Belenenses's games and 40% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Belenenses's recent games and 40% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and Benfica tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Benfica in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Belenenses 0-7 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 0.82 xG and Benfica 1.79 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Belenenses fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.79 projection by 5.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 14% | Draw 29% | Benfica 57%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 27%, Benfica 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Belenenses (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.