Famalicao 1-4 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Famalicao welcome Benfica to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 0W 3D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's away record: 6W 1D 0L from 7 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.71 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.71 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 62% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 62% | Benfica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.67 xG and Benfica 2.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.715 / defence 1.275 | Benfica attack 1.485 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.312. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.485 — the away xG of 2.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Famalicao games / 13 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 6% | Draw 19% | Benfica 75%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 16.67 | Draw 5.26 | Benfica 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (75%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 67% | Benfica 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 6% | Draw 19% | Benfica 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 47% | xG Famalicao 0.67 / Benfica 2.48 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.715 / def 1.275 | Benfica attack 1.485 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Benfica (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
2.48
Benfica xG
47%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Benfica kick off?
Famalicao vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Famalicao 1 - 4 Benfica.
Where is Famalicao vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Benfica part of?
Famalicao vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 6% chance of winning, Benfica a 75% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Famalicao and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.71) and Benfica's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 2.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
6%
16.69
19%
5.26
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.9%
Away win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Famalicao xG
Total xG
3.15
2.48
Benfica xG
16.69
6%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
8%
11.98
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
1%
199.95
38%
2.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Famalicao and 2.48 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Famalicao have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 10W 1D 2L from 13 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 away games — 2.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.69 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Benfica have gone 10W 1D 2L in their last 13 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.50 PPG; Benfica away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Benfica in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Benfica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 67%, Benfica 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 50% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 67%; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Famalicao's recent matches and 33% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 50% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Benfica tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Benfica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Famalicao 1-4 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.67 xG and Benfica 2.48 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 2.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.71 / defence 1.27 against Benfica attack 1.49 / defence 0.83, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 6% | Draw 19% | Benfica 75%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 62%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.