Arouca 1-4 Vizela – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arouca at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca plays host to Arouca versus Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 13 December 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arouca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Arouca are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Arouca than their overall form suggests.
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 7D 3L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Arouca, 0.70 for Vizela — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Vizela — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arouca 67% and Vizela 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 67% | Vizela 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.70 xG and Vizela 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.006 / defence 1.110 | Vizela attack 0.712 / defence 1.501. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.313. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.501 — this is suppressing Arouca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Arouca games / 12 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 50% | Draw 30% | Vizela 20%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Vizela 5.00. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 67% | Vizela 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 50% | Draw 30% | Vizela 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Arouca 1.70 / Vizela 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.006 / def 1.110 | Vizela attack 0.712 / def 1.501 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Arouca (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Vizela xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Vizela kick off?
Arouca vs Vizela kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Vizela?
Arouca 1 - 4 Vizela.
Where is Arouca vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Vizela part of?
Arouca vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 50% chance of winning, Vizela a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Arouca and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arouca and Vizela in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Vizela (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Arouca's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.71x) against Arouca's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.36
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Vizela xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
26.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Arouca and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Arouca and 1.04 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 4D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (1W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Arouca against 0.83 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Arouca's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Arouca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.83 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Vizela in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Vizela in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 7D 4L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Vizela away?
Arouca's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 2.00 PPG; Vizela away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 5-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Arouca
1
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Arouca have won 3, Vizela have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Arouca 5-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Vizela?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Arouca, 60% for Vizela — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Arouca and 60% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Arouca's games and 60% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arouca vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Arouca's matches and 60% of Vizela's.
Do Arouca and Vizela tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vizela in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vizela run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Arouca 1-4 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.70 xG and Vizela 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Vizela outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Vizela attack 0.71 / defence 1.50, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 50% | Draw 30% | Vizela 20%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Vizela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 67%, Vizela 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.08 PPG, Vizela 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.