Estoril 2-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Estoril welcome Santa Clara to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 November 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Estoril carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estoril register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Santa Clara in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Estoril in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 64% versus Santa Clara 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 36% | Santa Clara 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.40 xG and Santa Clara 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.924 / defence 1.003 | Santa Clara attack 0.652 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.301. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Estoril games / 11 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 46% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 19%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Santa Clara 5.26. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estoril 60% | Santa Clara 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 46% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Estoril 1.40 / Santa Clara 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.924 / def 1.003 | Santa Clara attack 0.652 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Estoril (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Santa Clara xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Santa Clara kick off?
Estoril vs Santa Clara kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Estoril 2 - 2 Santa Clara.
Where is Estoril vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Santa Clara part of?
Estoril vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 46% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Estoril and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in?
Estoril (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.92x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
46%
2.17
35%
2.87
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Santa Clara xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Estoril and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Estoril and 0.85 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 5W 5D 1L from 11 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 7L across 11 games — 0.55 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santa Clara heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.64 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Santa Clara away?
Estoril's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.20 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estoril
1
Draws
4
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Santa Clara have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 60%, Santa Clara 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Estoril) and 60% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 40% of games; Santa Clara in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estoril's games and 60% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Estoril's recent games and 60% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and Santa Clara finished level at 2-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.40 xG and Santa Clara 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Santa Clara attack 0.65 / defence 1.44, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 46% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 19%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 36%, Santa Clara 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.