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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AVS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS beat Estoril 3-0 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.08 xG and Estoril 2.67 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AVS beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.62 / defence 1.44 against Estoril attack 1.50 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 13% | Draw 16% | Estoril 71%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a AVS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 53%, Estoril 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Estoril's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with AVS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AVS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights