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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Arouca 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Arouca 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.07 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.67, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 21% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, Benfica 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights