Arouca 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arouca face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Arouca — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 8 victories compared to 0 for Arouca.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–5 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Benfica trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Benfica 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 56% | Benfica 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.07 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.066 / defence 1.195 | Benfica attack 1.300 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.186. Benfica's defence strength of 0.671 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Arouca games / 59 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 21% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Benfica 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arouca 40% | Benfica 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 21% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Arouca 1.07 / Benfica 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.066 / def 1.195 | Benfica attack 1.300 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Benfica (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Benfica xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 21% chance of winning, Benfica a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Record (9 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 8W.
What form are Arouca and Benfica in?
Arouca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 1.07x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
21%
4.73
24%
4.14
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.91
1.84
Benfica xG
4.73
21%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
3%
29.82
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Arouca and 1.84 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 16W 16D 27L from 59 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 42W 13D 4L across 59 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 9W 9D 11L from 29 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 20W 6D 3L across 29 trips, a 2.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.32 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 16W 16D 27L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while Benfica have gone 42W 13D 4L in their last 59 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.24 PPG; Benfica away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Benfica in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 48%, Benfica 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Arouca) and 59% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 45%; Arouca have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Arouca's recent matches and 48% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Arouca's recent games and 59% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Benfica tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Benfica in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Arouca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.07 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.67, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 21% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, Benfica 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.