🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.43 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.23 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights