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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Sat 14 Feb 2026

16:30

Venue

KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Zaglebie Lubin Win

38%

Zaglebie Lubin

2.64

27%

Draw

3.69

35%

Raków Częstochowa

2.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

1 – 2

8.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.49

Zaglebie Lubin xG

Total xG

2.92

1.43

Raków Częstochowa xG

38%
27%
35%
Zaglebie LubinDrawRaków Częstochowa

2.64

38%

Home win

3.69

27%

Draw

2.85

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.66

40%

BTTS No

2.51

Clean Sheet

24%

Zaglebie Lubin

4.17

22%

Raków Częstochowa

4.45

Win to Nil

9%

Zaglebie Lubin

11.03

8%

Raków Częstochowa

12.68

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 7.7 5.5 2.6 0.9 0.3
1 8.0 11.5 8.2 3.9 1.4 0.4
2 6.0 8.6 6.1 2.9 1.0 0.3
3 3.0 4.3 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.492
λ Away (xG) 1.429
Total xG 2.921
League avg home goals 1.476
League avg away goals 1.186
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 1.035
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 0.976
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.234
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.976
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54