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Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 49%, Radomiak Radom 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights