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Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights