Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zaglebie Lubin at 1.20 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0, Cracovia Krakow 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Cracovia Krakow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 58% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.785 / defence 1.114 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.858 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.194. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Zaglebie Lubin games / 48 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 40%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Cracovia Krakow 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 / Cracovia Krakow 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.785 / def 1.114 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.858 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cracovia Krakow xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 27% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
27%
3.64
33%
3.07
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.04
1.14
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.14 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 17L across 48 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.15 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 7W 7D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.22 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
5
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 61%, Cracovia Krakow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 30% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 30% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.14 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 40%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 58%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.