Wisla Plock 1-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slask Wroclaw make the trip to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego to face Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's home record at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.20 for Slask Wroclaw. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Wisla Plock, 2 for Slask Wroclaw and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 56% and Slask Wroclaw 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 58% | Slask Wroclaw 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.67 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.193 / defence 0.831 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.734 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.180. Data: 48 Wisla Plock games / 48 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 15%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Slask Wroclaw 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 50% | Slask Wroclaw 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Plock 1.67 / Slask Wroclaw 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.193 / def 0.831 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.734 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Slask Wroclaw xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Wisla Plock 1 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 59% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (1.19) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.73x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.85
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.39
0.72
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
3%
35.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.72 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 7D 19L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (11W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Wisla Plock's home form reads 16W 3D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.19 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 22W 7D 19L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 11W 19D 18L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.22 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slask Wroclaw have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 44%, Slask Wroclaw 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Wisla Plock) and 44% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 65% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 44% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slask Wroclaw defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Wisla Plock 1-2 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.67 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.72 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 15%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Slask Wroclaw win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 58%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Slask Wroclaw winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.