Cracovia Krakow 1-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jagiellonia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.40 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 39% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 35% | Jagiellonia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.873 / defence 0.714 | Jagiellonia attack 0.950 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.208. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Cracovia Krakow games / 49 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 23%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 4.35. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 10% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.30 / Jagiellonia 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.873 / def 0.714 | Jagiellonia attack 0.950 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Jagiellonia xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 47% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Record (2 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.95x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.36
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.12
0.82
Jagiellonia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.82 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 14D 17L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (13W 19D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.18 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (4W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.29 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 13W 19D 17L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Jagiellonia away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.54 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 33%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cracovia Krakow) and 58% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 29% of games; Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 58% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Jagiellonia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 0.82 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.87 / defence 0.71 against Jagiellonia attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 23%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 35%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.