Stal Mielec 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 4 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Stal Mielec against 0.90 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stal Mielec lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 53% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 47% | Zaglebie Lubin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.66 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.060 / defence 1.013 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.961 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.215. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Stal Mielec games / 49 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.70. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Stal Mielec 1.66 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.060 / def 1.013 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.961 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Zaglebie Lubin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Stal Mielec 3 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 48% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (2 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (1.06) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.96x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.94
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.85
1.18
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
5%
19.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.18 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 12D 21L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 15W 10D 24L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.12 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 7W 3D 14L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.12 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.50 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stal Mielec won 3-0 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stal Mielec) and 62% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec have failed to score in 29% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stal Mielec run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.66 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 47%, Zaglebie Lubin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.22 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.