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Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Cracovia Krakow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights