Wisla Plock 3-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Stal Mielec's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Wisla Plock. A 0.90 PPG lead over Stal Mielec (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wisla Plock lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 52% versus Stal Mielec 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 54% | Stal Mielec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.48 xG and Stal Mielec 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.909 / defence 1.242 | Stal Mielec attack 0.837 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.257. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.509 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Wisla Plock games / 33 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Stal Mielec 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Stal Mielec 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Wisla Plock 1.48 / Stal Mielec 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.909 / def 1.242 | Stal Mielec attack 0.837 / def 1.509 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Stal Mielec xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Wisla Plock 3 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec part of?
Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 40% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Stal Mielec's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.84x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.65
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.79
1.31
Stal Mielec xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.31 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 14W 3D 16L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Stal Mielec's form line: 9W 10D 14L from 33 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.12 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.00 PPG from 16 outings (10W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.18 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 14W 3D 16L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Stal Mielec away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.00 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 38%, Stal Mielec 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wisla Plock) and 50% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Wisla Plock's games and 75% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Plock run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Stal Mielec 3-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.48 xG and Stal Mielec 1.31 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Stal Mielec attack 0.84 / defence 1.51, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 32%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 54%, Stal Mielec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.36 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.