Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Nieciecza at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nieciecza's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Pogon Szczecin have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Nieciecza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Nieciecza trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 61% versus Nieciecza 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Nieciecza 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.08 xG and Nieciecza 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.374 / defence 1.213 | Nieciecza attack 0.871 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.257. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nieciecza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Pogon Szczecin games / 33 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Nieciecza 4.35. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Nieciecza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.08 / Nieciecza 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.374 / def 1.213 | Nieciecza attack 0.871 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Nieciecza xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 2 Nieciecza.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 0 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.37) and Nieciecza's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nieciecza's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.40
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.41
1.33
Nieciecza xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
3%
34.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 18W 10D 5L from 33 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Nieciecza, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 16L across 33 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nieciecza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 11W 2D 3L from 16 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nieciecza's away record stands at 2W 5D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.03 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Nieciecza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 10D 5L in their last 33 games (1.94 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 7W 10D 16L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Nieciecza away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.19 PPG; Nieciecza away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Nieciecza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nieciecza in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Nieciecza specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
0
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Nieciecza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 75%, Nieciecza at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Pogon Szczecin and 50% for Nieciecza. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nieciecza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Nieciecza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 56% of Nieciecza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Nieciecza's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 34, as Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.08 xG and Nieciecza 1.33 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.37 / defence 1.21 against Nieciecza attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 23%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 48%, Nieciecza 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Nieciecza's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.