Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.50 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 50% versus Wisla Plock 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 41% | Wisla Plock 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.23 xG and Wisla Plock 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.834 / defence 0.961 | Wisla Plock attack 0.909 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.269. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Cracovia Krakow games / 32 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 31% | Wisla Plock 32%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Wisla Plock 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 30% | Wisla Plock 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 31% | Wisla Plock 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.23 / Wisla Plock 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.834 / def 0.961 | Wisla Plock attack 0.909 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wisla Plock xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 38% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.27
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.34
1.11
Wisla Plock xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.11 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 11W 10D 11L from 32 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 14W 3D 15L across 32 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.34 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 6W 5D 5L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 4W 1D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.41 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 10D 11L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 14W 3D 15L in their last 32 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Wisla Plock away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.44 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 50%, Wisla Plock 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cracovia Krakow) and 62% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 69% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 62% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Wisla Plock 3-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.23 xG and Wisla Plock 1.11 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 31% | Wisla Plock 32%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 41%, Wisla Plock 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.34 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.