Stal Mielec 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw meet at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stal Mielec have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Stal Mielec, 0.90 for Slask Wroclaw — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slask Wroclaw in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stal Mielec 0W, Slask Wroclaw 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stal Mielec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stal Mielec 62% and Slask Wroclaw 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 50% | Slask Wroclaw 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.12 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / defence 1.165 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.825 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.240. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Stal Mielec games / 32 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 30% | Slask Wroclaw 37%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Slask Wroclaw 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stal Mielec 60% | Slask Wroclaw 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 30% | Slask Wroclaw 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Stal Mielec 1.12 / Slask Wroclaw 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / def 1.165 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.825 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Slask Wroclaw xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 33% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 0 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.82x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.32
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.19 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 9W 9D 14L from 32 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 12L across 32 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.06 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 7W 3D 6L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.19 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 13D 12L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.50 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Slask Wroclaw have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-4 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 50%, Slask Wroclaw 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stal Mielec) and 56% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stal Mielec's games and 75% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 56% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 33, as Stal Mielec and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.12 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 30% | Slask Wroclaw 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 50%, Slask Wroclaw 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.12 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.