Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 38%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Radomiak Radom at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Orlen Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Radomiak Radom are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Radomiak Radom 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.28 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.612 / defence 0.997 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 38% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Radomiak Radom 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Wisla Plock 10% | Radomiak Radom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 38% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Plock 1.28 / Radomiak Radom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.612 / def 0.997 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.91
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.36
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.07 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 11D 15L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (12W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.28 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (2W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.47 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 21%, Radomiak Radom 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Wisla Plock) and 63% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 53% of games; Radomiak Radom in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 68% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 63% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.